No BoE rate hike in 2017, Pound tubles

Note the Rejection at 161.8% Fib ext. level of 1.3274. Now we wait for a breakout bullish/bearish of the rising wedge pattern. Looks as if bearish break is on the cards. That would mark end of the rally from 1.20 handle.

GBPUSD D1 (08-03-2017 1836).png

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Cable drops to 10-DMA, is the top in place?

Cable is hanging around 10-DMA level of 1.2961 after the post-retail sales rally fell apart at 1.3020.

The 1-hour 200-DMA level of 1.2965 has been breached. The quid has retraced 50% of the rally from 1.2812. 61.8% is 1.2932 – that is where the current sell-off may come to a halt, although I prefer to be a seller on upticks…

 

GBP/USD shows a fake breakout…

Daily chart

GBPUSD D1 (07-18-2017 1620).png

The quid fell back below the inverse head and shoulders neckline and looks set to test 1.30 handle. The 5-DMA is stationed around 1.30 as well. UK inflation fell for the first time in 9 months, the data released earlier today showed, but squeeze is still intact as prices outstrip wages. UK consumer spending isn’t likely to benefit much from the retreat in inflation…

 

GBP/USD Technicals: Strong resistance at 1.3058

Daily chart shows inverse head and shoulder with a neckline hurdle at 1.3058. Potential three white soldiers pattern at critical resistance of 1.30. Bullish 50-MA & 200-MA crossover on 1-hour suggests pull back likely before further upside unfolds…Nice rising trend line has been established on the 1-hour chart, likely to work as good supp around 1.2950 levels.

Key Tech Levels – Spot CMP 1.2975

1.2984 (July 6 high)

1.3058 (inverse head and shoulders neckline) – 1.3059 (Aug 30, 2016 low)

1.3121 (Sep 22, 2016 high)


1.2964 (1-hr 5-MA)

1.2950 (rising trend line supp on 1-hr)

1.2926 (23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2589-1.3031) – 1.2921 (1-hr 50-MA)

1.2911 (1-hr 200-MA)

1.2872 (50-DMA)

1-hr chart

GBPUSD H1 (07-14-2017 1720).png

Daily chart

GBPUSD D1 (07-14-2017 1721).png

Its looking bad for Pound

The retreat from 1.2975 to 10-DMA support of 1.2916 is disheartening. It does two things – the chart now shows falling top formation and the 5-DMA and 10-DMA are nearing a bearish crossover – this is almost always a first sign that a top has been made.

If the US hourly earnings figure beat estimates, one can go short on GBP for 1.2880-1.2840. It all depends on the US data now. I would not want to be on the long side unless the spot breaks above today’s high of 1.2975.

GBPUSD D1 (07-07-2017 1421).png