GBP/AUD – Keep an eye on 1.6190-1.6180

Monthly chart – Watch for a break below or rebound from 1.6190… upside to be capped around 1.75, below 1.6190 would expose 1.5789 Oct 2016 low

GBPAUD M1 (07-31-2017 1926).png


EUR/USD… And we are heading towards 1-hour 200-MA

Hourly chart

EURUSD H1 (07-20-2017 1740).png

A nice falling trend line has been established following the ECB’s dovish rant. The spot looks set to test 1-hr 200-MA – 1.1461. That would push the RSI into the oversold territory, so further losses are to be viewed with caution…

EUR/USD could face resistance at 1.1562

Daily chart – Plot fib extensions on the rally from June 20 low. We get 76.4% extension at 1.1562. The RSI is almost overbought, but that isn’t a holy grail of sorts. Expect another wave of USD selling in NY open. 1.1616 looks scalable this week.

EURUSD D1 (07-18-2017 1632).png

But what does it mean for Draghi & Co. Fed tightening was boon of sorts for other central banks like the ECB. Now with the declining odds of Fed tightening, the EUR is on the rise. ECB is facing its own technical issues with respect to QE, its a done deal that the central will have to announce  taper this year due to technical factors.

If the EUR/USD would not have rallied so much, Draghi may have announced  taper this week. But EUR rally may force Draghi to remain non-committal this week…