This is purely technical based argument. Check out the weekly chart below. We see a bearish crossover between 50-MA and 100-DMA, while 200-MA is acting as a strong support…
I strongly believe that long-term moving average crossovers are big time lagging indicators. Thus, spot could head higher from here.
The 50-MA and 100-MA bearish crossover was last seen in 2010. The crossover left a low of 45.00 levels. The pair then proceeded to rally record high levels in the subsequent years.
A similar pattern could be followed this time… 64.00 could be the new 45.00…. more so because the equity markets are ridiculously overvalued and vulnerable to strong correction. A correction/drop in the equities has always been negative for the INR (positive for the USD/INR), irrespective of the trend in the Dollar Index.