USD/CAD – 3rd wave of the extended 3rd wave is in progress

Daily chart

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A classic 5-wave pattern is unfolding here. We are currently in the wave iii of the extended third wave. The RSI is oversold so it is quite likely the wave iii of the extended 3rd wave may found a bottom around 1.29.

The spot could then recover to around 1.31 – which would the corrective wave iv of the extended third wave.

IF BoC does hike rates or signals a rate hike in Q3, the wave v of the extended 3rd wave could go down to 1.27-1.26.

On the other hand, if BOC refuses to join the hawks, the wave v of the extended 3rd wave would see failure at the low of the third wave of the extended third wave i.e. truncation, which is a sign of sharp reversal.

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