US manufacturing recession is a well-known fact and the regional PMI readings have pointed out to further slowdown in February.
Hence, don’t be surprised if the ISM prints weaker than the consensus estimate of 48.5
On my watch list, is not just the headline figure, but I would be more interested to see if the sector added jobs in February. If it did, the weaker-than-expected headline figure could be ignored by the markets.
More so, because the corporate spending and household spending rose sharply in January; something that Fed would be happy about.
To conclude, I would go not mind going into the event with a GBP/USD long with a small stop because – USD could suffer losses if the headline if weak and the employment index is disappointing as well